COVID-19

COVID-19 IMPACT ASSESSMENT MODEL

EXX AFRICA COVID-19 IMPACT POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC RISK MODEL

EXX Africa has developed a political and economic risk impact assessment model for 54 African countries on the basis of our own proprietary Default High Risk Score per country and the proportion of COVID-19 cases within the population, as well as African countries’ health indicators, population density, and anticipation of economic shock among other variable and weighted risk indicators.

The model assesses the impact of COVID-19 on each African country’s political, security, and economic risk profile in the one-year outlook. The model does not replace EXX Africa’s own risk score methodology but adds enhanced value to our country risk reporting during the pandemic. The variable weighting of the model and the inclusion of additional indicators will continue over the course of the pandemic based on developments across the continent and globally.

The impact assessment model will be available as open content for the duration of the pandemic for both our Members and non-clients. As a strategic risk forecasting company, EXX Africa believes it is important and morally imperative to share actionable intelligence at a time of global emergency. The impact model’s methodology remains proprietary and redistribution rights are reserved. Any questions can be addressed to Insight@EXXAfrica.com.

Based on various weighted scenarios within the impact assessment model, Nigeria is consistently rated as being most vulnerable to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in terms of political, security, and economic risk indicators in the one-year outlook. The model’s consistent results are determined by Nigeria’s high population density, weak healthcare indicators, already elevated political and security risk scores, and the country’s perilous economic over-dependence on oil exports.

According to our impact assessment model, five African countries now rate as ‘Critical’ (a score of 6.0 and above) on our impact model. These results are likely to change as the number of COVID-19 cases rise in some countries. Further changes to this model are expected when EXX Africa releases its quarterly risk score update on 31 March and the IMF releases its amended 2020 economic forecasts in April.

TEN AFRICAN COUNTRIES AT HIGHEST RISK OF COVID-19 IMPACT

Based on proprietary forecasting methodology. All forecasts in the one-year outlook.

FULL IMPACT ASSESSMENT RESULTS PER COUNTRY

Based on proprietary forecasting methodology. All forecasts in the one-year outlook.

CountryImpact Assesment
ALGERIA3.25
ANGOLA4.85
BENIN4.20
BOTSWANA1.75
BURKINA FASO5.75
BURUNDI7.15
CAMEROON4.90
CAPE VERDE3.25
CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC4.90
CHAD4.70
COMOROS5.45
CONGO, REPUBLIC4.25
COTE D'IVOIRE (IVORY COAST)4.80
DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO5.50
DJIBOUTI4.25
EGYPT3.90
EQUATORIAL GUINEA7.00
ERITREA5.35
ETHIOPIA5.00
GABON3.35
GAMBIA4.60
GHANA4.50
GUINEA4.90
GUINEA-BISSAU5.50
KENYA4.75
LESOTHO6.10
LIBERIA5.00
LIBYA4.30
MADAGASCAR3.95
MALAWI5.65
MALI4.90
MAURITANIA3.20
MAURITIUS3.70
MOROCCO3.30
MOZAMBIQUE4.95
NAMIBIA2.95
NIGER4.05
NIGERIA7.35
RWANDA4.00
SAO TOME AND PRINCIPE4.55
SENEGAL3.30
SEYCHELLES3.85
SIERRA LEONE5.80
SOMALIA5.40
SOUTH AFRICA5.10
SOUTH SUDAN4.75
SUDAN5.85
SWAZILAND6.15
TANZANIA4.80
TOGO5.35
TUNISIA4.25
UGANDA5.80
ZAMBIA5.05
ZIMBABWE5.35
Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Map
COVID-19 MEDIA MONITOR
DateCountrySourceNews Headline
27 Mar 2020EGYPTEGYPT TODAYEgypt's growth rate to dip to 5.1% because of coronavirus
27 Mar 2020ERITREAAFRICA NEWSWith 6 coronavirus cases, Eritrea shuts schools, all public transport suspended
27 Mar 2020ETHIOPIAAFRICA NEWSEthiopia's Tigray region declares coronavirus state of emergency
27 Mar 2020GUINEA-BISSAUAPA NEWSGuinea Bissau records first Covid-19 cases
27 Mar 2020KENYADAILY NATIONGSU officers use tear gas to clear crowded markets in Meru
27 Mar 2020MALAWIAPA NEWSNorway gives Malawi $1.2milion to fight COVID-19
27 Mar 2020MOROCCOMOROCCO WORLD NEWSUS Grants Morocco MAD 6.6 Million to Mitigate Spread of COVID-19
27 Mar 2020SOUTH SUDANSUDAN TRIBUNESouth Sudan imposes night-time curfew over coronavirus
27 Mar 2020WEST AFRICAAPA NEWSBOAD pumps nearly 200 billion CFA into Covid-19 fight
26 Mar 2020AFRICAMONEYWEBIMF says coronavirus to hit sub-Saharan Africa’s growth hard
26 Mar 2020AFRICAGHANA WEBWorld Bank, IMF call for suspension of debt payment
26 Mar 2020AFRICADAILY NEWS EGYPTAfreximbank announces $3bn-facility to cushion impact of COVID-19
26 Mar 2020DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGODAILY NATIONDRC declares state of emergency, shuts borders
26 Mar 2020ETHIOPIAAPA NEWSEthiopia pardons over 4000 inmates over COVID-19
26 Mar 2020GHANAGHANA WEBIMF fast-tracks Ghana’s Rapid Credit Facility request
26 Mar 2020GUINEA-BISSAUREUTERS AFRICAGuinea-Bissau confirms first two cases of coronavirus
26 Mar 2020KENYAAPA NEWSKenyan imposes curfew to combat epidemic
26 Mar 2020LIBERIALIBERIAN OBSERVEREcobank Liberia Provides US$20K for Gov’t to Fight COVID-19
26 Mar 2020LIBYAREUTERS AFRICALibya battles escalate as coronavirus arrives in country
26 Mar 2020MALIREUTERS AFRICAMali reports first two cases of coronavirus: government statement
26 Mar 2020NAMIBIANAMIBIANAir Namibia suspends all operations
26 Mar 2020NIGERIANAIJA NEWSArmy To Start Enforcing ‘Stay At Home’ Policy
26 Mar 2020NIGERIAAPA NEWSUN mobilises $2m for Nigeria’s fight against COVID-19
26 Mar 2020UGANDAREUTERS AFRICAUganda, usually welcoming to refugees, bars all new arrivals to contain coronavirus
26 Mar 2020ZIMBABWEREUTERS AFRICAZimbabwe nurses walk out, customs officials protest over coronavirus fears
25 Mar 2020AFRICAEGYPT TODAYWorld Bank funds developing countries by $150B to fight coronavirus
25 Mar 2020AFRICAMONEYWEBUN sees Africa sliding into recession without debt-service help
25 Mar 2020AFRICAGHANA WEBIMF predicts negative global growth in 2020
25 Mar 2020AFRICATHE GUARDIAN AFRICAAfrica leads calls for debt relief in face of coronavirus crisis
25 Mar 2020ANGOLAANGOPBFA provides USD five million dollars
25 Mar 2020BOTSWANAAPA NEWSBotswana bans travel to neighbouring countries
25 Mar 2020BURKINA FASOJOURNAL DU CAMEROUNMajor markets, public attractions closed over Covid-19
25 Mar 2020COTE D’IVOIRE (IVORY COAST)APA NEWSAir Cote d’Ivoire suspends regional flights for 30 days over Covid-19
25 Mar 2020DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGOREUTERS AFRICACongo closes borders, enforces state of emergency over coronavirus
25 Mar 2020EGYPTREUTERS AFRICAEgypt declares two-week curfew to counter coronavirus
25 Mar 2020LIBYAREUTERS AFRICALibya confirms first coronavirus case amid fear over readiness
25 Mar 2020NAMIBIAREUTERS AFRICANamibia announces travel ban, partial lockdown after seventh coronavirus case
25 Mar 2020SENEGALAPA NEWSSenegal declares state of emergency
25 Mar 2020SEYCHELLESSEYCHELLES NEWS AGENCY2,300 bookings worth $ 3.8 million cancelled in island nation due to virus, survey finds
25 Mar 2020SIERRA LEONEAFRICA NEWSVirus-free Sierra Leone declares 12-month state of Public Health emergency
25 Mar 2020SOUTH AFRICAMONEYWEBSA’s foreign direct investment dips in 2019
25 Mar 2020SOUTH AFRICAMONEYWEBSA economy could crater up to 10% this year
25 Mar 2020SUDANAL JAZEERA AFRICASudan orders closure of all borders over COVID-19
24 Mar 2020AFRICAREUTERS AFRICAAfrican finance ministers call for $100 billion stimulus, debt holiday
24 Mar 2020AFRICAMONEYWEBIMF sees a recession at least as bad as global financial crisis
24 Mar 2020DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGOREUTERS AFRICADemocratic Republic of Congo locks down mining area, workers sent home over coronavirus
24 Mar 2020ERITREAAFRICA NEWSEritrea imposes partial lockdown after recording index case of coronavirus
24 Mar 2020ETHIOPIAAFRICA NEWSEthiopia shuts all land borders; army, police to enforce new regulations
24 Mar 2020KENYAAFRICA NEWSKenya suspends all international flights as COVID-19 cases double
24 Mar 2020LIBERIAAPA NEWSLiberia suspends all flights over COVID-19
24 Mar 2020LIBYALIBYA OBSERVER24-hour lockdown announced in Libya's Tajoura
24 Mar 2020MADAGASCARNEWS 24 AFRICAMadagascar orders lockdown of two main cities in virus fight
24 Mar 2020NIGERIAAFRICA NEWSNigeria shuts all borders, cabinet meetings suspended
24 Mar 2020RWANDAAFRICA NEWSRwanda enforcing coronavirus lockdown
24 Mar 2020SIERRA LEONESIERRA LEONE TELEGRAPHHundreds of visitors stranded in Sierra Leone as Lungi airport is shutdown
24 Mar 2020SOUTH AFRICAREUTERS AFRICASouth Africa to impose 21-day lockdown as coronavirus cases jump
24 Mar 2020SOUTH AFRICAMONEYWEBMajor mall owners hammered on the JSE
24 Mar 2020SUDANSUDAN TRIBUNESudan imposes partial curfew nationwide to curb coronavirus
24 Mar 2020TUNISIAREUTERS AFRICATunisia orders army into streets to enforce coronavirus lockdown
24 Mar 2020UGANDADAILY MONITORUganda Airlines suspends operations over coronavirus
24 Mar 2020ZIMBABWENEWS DAYZim closes borders after COVID-19 death
23 Mar 2020EGYPTEGYPT TODAYCBE announces postponing credit liabilities for 6 months
23 Mar 2020ETHIOPIAAPA NEWSEthiopian Airlines reports $190 m loss amid coronavirus pandemic
23 Mar 2020ETHIOPIAAPA NEWSEthiopia to quarantine all passengers on arrival
23 Mar 2020KENYADAILY NATIONShilling plunges to record low as coronavirus takes toll
23 Mar 2020KENYAAPA NEWSKenya’s Central Bank releases $70m to contain spread of COVID-19
23 Mar 2020MADAGASCARREUTERS AFRICAMadagascar confirms first cases of coronavirus: president
23 Mar 2020MALAWIAPA NEWSMutharika declares coronavirus state of disaster
23 Mar 2020MALINEWS 24 AFRICAWoefully unprepared' - Mali panics over coronavirus
23 Mar 2020NIGERIAAFRICA NEWSNigeria's Lagos orders 70% of workforce to stay home
23 Mar 2020NIGERIADAILY NATIONNigeria shuts down airports over Covid-19
23 Mar 2020SOUTH AFRICAMAIL AND GUARDIANSAA endgame arrives as Covid-19 hits airlines
23 Mar 2020TUNISIAFRANCE 24Tunisia orders lockdown due to coronavirus, postpones loan repayments for poor
23 Mar 2020TUNISIANEWS 24 AFRICATunisia president announces nationwide self-isolation
23 Mar 2020ZAMBIAZAMBIA WATCHDOGUK withdraws staff from Lusaka
20 Mar 2020AFRICAREUTERS AFRICAAfrica coronavirus cases to rise as some undetected: AU body
20 Mar 2020AFRICAREUTERS AFRICAMideast, Africa airlines in crisis as coronavirus stifles demand -IATA
20 Mar 2020ANGOLAANGOPCovid-19: Report on alleged positive case denied in Benguela
20 Mar 2020CHADREUTERS AFRICAChad confirms first case of coronavirus: government statement
20 Mar 2020EGYPTREUTERS AFRICAEgypt to shut all cafes, malls, sports clubs in evenings till March 31
20 Mar 2020ETHIOPIAAFRICA NEWSAnti-foreigner sentiment: Ethiopians must join global COVID-19 combat - Minister
20 Mar 2020GHANAGHANA WEBGhana first in Sub-Saharan Africa to cut rates to combat coronavirus
20 Mar 2020GHANAGHANA WEBCOVID-19: There would be no election 2020
20 Mar 2020LIBERIALIBERIAN OBSERVERWorld Bank Provides Liberia US$15M to Fight COVID-19
20 Mar 2020MALAWIAPA NEWSUS evacuates volunteers from Malawi amid COVID-19 fears
20 Mar 2020MOROCCOMOROCCO WORLD NEWSCOVID-19: Morocco Declares State of Emergency
20 Mar 2020NIGERREUTERS AFRICANiger confirms first case of coronavirus, health minister says
20 Mar 2020NIGERIANAIJA NEWSCBN Releases Extra N1.1trillion For COVID-19
20 Mar 2020RWANDABBC AFRICARwanda suspends flights as coronavirus cases rise
19 Mar 2020AFRICAZAMBIAN OBSERVERJack Ma gives 20,000 coronavirus test kits to each country in Africa
19 Mar 2020BOTSWANAAPA NEWSBotswana bans mass gatherings but schools remain open
19 Mar 2020CAMEROONAFRICA NEWSCameroon closes all borders amid raft of coronavirus guidelines
19 Mar 2020CAMEROONJOURNAL DU CAMEROUNGov’t receives FCFA 100 Million support fund to fight COVID-19
19 Mar 2020CAPE VERDECLUB OF MOZAMBIQUEFlag carrier suspends all flights
19 Mar 2020ETHIOPIAJOURNAL DU CAMEROUNUS embassy warns of anti-foreigner sentiment due to COVID-19
19 Mar 2020GUINEAAFRICA NEWSECOWAS mediation mission to Guinea postponed due to coronavirus
19 Mar 2020MAURITIUSREUTERS AFRICAMauritius confirms first three cases of coronavirus
19 Mar 2020MOROCCOMOROCCO WORLD NEWSAdditional Donations to COVID-19 Special Fund Bring Total to MAD 15 Billion
19 Mar 2020NIGERIADAILY POSTUS retaliates, cancels all visa appointments in Nigeria
19 Mar 2020NIGERIAREUTERS AFRICANigeria bans entry to arrivals from 13 countries to combat coronavirus
19 Mar 2020NIGERIATIMES LIVEDoctors in Nigeria strike over delayed pay amid coronavirus
19 Mar 2020SIERRA LEONESIERRA LEONE TELEGRAPHSierra Leone locks its doors on its own citizens returning home from abroad
19 Mar 2020SOUTH AFRICABLOOMBERGSouth Africa Steps Up Travel Bans as Coronavirus Cases Surge
19 Mar 2020SOUTH AFRICAMONEYWEBSAA cancels 162 flights due to coronavirus
19 Mar 2020SOUTH AFRICAMONEYWEBRand, stocks sink as coronavirus pummels markets again
19 Mar 2020ZAMBIALUSAKA TIMESZambia confirms first two cases of Coronavirus
18 Mar 2020AFRICAREUTERS AFRICAMore African countries confirm first coronavirus cases as Jack Ma pledges aid
18 Mar 2020ALGERIAFRANCE 24Anti-government protests thwarted as Algeria bans street marches over coronavirus
18 Mar 2020GAMBIAJOURNAL DU CAMEROUNGambia confirms first COVID-19 case
18 Mar 2020LIBYALIBYA HERALDInternational community and UNSMIL call for humanitarian truce in Libya in view of the worldwide coronavirus outbreak
18 Mar 2020LIBYAAL JAZEERA AFRICALibya closes borders to protect weak health sector from COVID-19
18 Mar 2020MOROCCOMOROCCO WORLD NEWSMorocco Confirms Second Coronavirus-Related Death
18 Mar 2020NIGERIABBC AFRICANigerian doctors go on "indefinite strike" amid outbreak
18 Mar 2020SADCDAILY MONITORSADC Council of Ministers meeting to be held via video due to coronavirus
18 Mar 2020SUDANSUDAN TRIBUNESudan closes ports, airports to stop coronavirus spread
18 Mar 2020TUNISIAREUTERS AFRICATunisia imposes 12-hour daily curfew to counter coronavirus
18 Mar 2020ZIMBABWEAFRICA NEWSDespite zero case, Zimbabwe declares national emergency over COVID-19
17 Mar 2020AFRICATHE GUARDIAN AFRICAAfrican nations impose stricter measures as coronavirus spreads
17 Mar 2020ALGERIAREUTERS AFRICAAlgeria to suspend travel with Europe and Africa
17 Mar 2020BENINNEWS 24 AFRICABenin announces first coronavirus case
17 Mar 2020BOTSWANAAPA NEWSBotswana bars travellers from coronavirus-hit countries
17 Mar 2020BURKINA FASOAL JAZEERA AFRICAIn Burkina Faso, COVID-19 fight complicated by war, displacement
17 Mar 2020CHADAPA NEWSAir France passengers in quarantine
17 Mar 2020EGYPTREUTERS AFRICAEgypt to halt flights from Thursday to stem spread of coronavirus
17 Mar 2020ERITREAAFRICA NEWSCoronavirus-free Eritrea bans all internal, external travel
17 Mar 2020GHANAGHANA WEB4th Ghana trade and finance conference postponed over coronavirus
17 Mar 2020LIBERIANEWS 24 AFRICALiberia confirms first coronavirus case
17 Mar 2020MOROCCOREUTERS AFRICAMorocco to close non-essential public places starting today: Interior Ministry
17 Mar 2020SEYCHELLESSEYCHELLES NEWS AGENCYTravel ban on Europeans; 4th case reported
17 Mar 2020SOMALIADAILY MONITORSomalia confirms first coronavirus case
17 Mar 2020SWAZILANDAPA NEWSeSwatini shuts down borders with South Africa
17 Mar 2020TANZANIADAILY MONITORTanzania confirms first coronavirus case
17 Mar 2020TUNISIAREUTERS AFRICATunisia suspends all international flights, closes its land borders - PM
16 Mar 2020ANGOLA, BOTSWANACLUB OF MOZAMBIQUEBotswana, Angola close borders for officials amid Covid-19
16 Mar 2020CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC, MAURITANIA, SEYCHELLES, RWANDAREUTERS AFRICAFour more African nations confirm coronavirus, new controls put in place
16 Mar 2020CONGO, REPUBLICREUTERS AFRICACongo Republic confirms first coronavirus case: government
16 Mar 2020LIBYALIBYA OBSERVERLibya closes land and air ports, takes measures to prevent coronavirus
16 Mar 2020MOROCCOAFRICA NEWSBorder closures: Morocco 'isolates' itself to control coronavirus spread
16 Mar 2020NAMIBIAREUTERS AFRICANamibia reports first two cases of coronavirus, imposes travel ban
16 Mar 2020RWANDAREUTERS AFRICARwanda says number of coronavirus cases rises to five
16 Mar 2020SOUTH AFRICANEWS 24Coronavirus in SA: Ramaphosa declares national 'state of disaster', imposes travel bans
COVID-19 INFOGRAPHICS FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION
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Last updated: Wednesday, 25 Mar 2020, 10:00 (GMT)

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