A sprawling IMF-backed privatisation programme creates exceptional opportunities for investors across diverse sectors. State assets selloffs may also be the only course for Angola to reduce its massive public debt burden, to diversify away from the oil sector, and to slip out of an extended recession. Yet tenders and auctions will need careful management, transparency, and accountability to have their desired effect.
EXX Africa explores Russia’s growing influence in Africa. We look at the drivers of this foreign policy shift, the locations of interest, and the implications for traditional players across the continent.
Ongoing security, political, and humanitarian challenges in the Great Lakes have prompted a series of meetings among regional heads over the past few months with the most recent being a summit between Angola, the DRC, Rwanda and Uganda in July. We examine the issues that likely prompted this recent gathering and the wider impact they are having on the region.
Over the past year, the rapid encroachment of Sahel-based Islamist militant groups on the borders of West African coastal states has prompted widespread concern that previously unaffected locales are now under threat. Based on the geographic dispersal of regional militant actors and their current capabilities and intent, EXX Africa assesses the possible scenarios and likely locations for a terrorist attack in these coastal hubs.
The largest ever foreign direct investment into sub-Saharan Africa has been secured by Mozambique, and even more commitments in the LNG sector are underway. The country’s long-struggling economy is already witnessing signs of a recovery in anticipation of more foreign exchange revenue. But in order to participate fully in its own LNG sector, the government will have to restructure its debts, nullify some loans, and bring in IMF support.
President Idriss Déby of Chad has taken significant steps over the last year to secure his hold on power. While these measures along with external support for his rule are likely to secure this position, the past year has been characterised by the rise of numerous internal and external challenges to stability. EXX Africa explores these threats and their manifestation over the coming year.
The central African regional CEMAC bloc is unlikely to fully deliver on its fiscal consolidation and debt sustainability agenda, as its respective national governments prioritise political patronage and regime survival over fiscal and monetary prudence. Failure to successfully implement IMF-mandated reforms is likely to trigger a devaluation of the CEMAC currency, which would in turn sharply increase non-payment risks across key sectors.
Transport logistics are a vital and promising sector for business in Africa. However, traversing land, sea, and air routes across the continent comes with a plethora of political and security risks. EXX Africa explores the key concerns in this regard, their manifestation, impact, and outlook.
The head of state energy giant Sonangol is replaced just as the company plans extensive asset divestments. There is ample precedent indicating that Angola’s new ruling elite is seeking to capitalise on positions of patronage, while the country’s embattled president is facing off ruling party rifts and the prospect of mounting unrest over IMF-mandated austerity measures. EXX Africa looks at what the changes at Sonangol mean for Angola’s political and economic prospects.
The political stalemate between the new military establishment and the protest movement that is increasingly tilting in favour of Islamist ideology risks dragging a politically destabilised and economically weakened Algeria into a broader regional conflict that would put at risk contracts signed with key investment partners from across the Gulf and Europe.